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Area economic monitor forecasts slowdown
eco graph
On the whole economic indicators have shown increases over the past 26 years. - photo by ASU graphic
Special to the Couirer
Updated: Nov 1, 2016, 8:00 AM
Published: Oct 31, 2016, 3:22 PM

SAVANNAH — Armstrong State University’s latest Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, which analyzes data and identifies trends affecting the regional economy, reports that the Savannah metro economy continued growing during the second quarter of 2016, but some turbulence lies ahead.

Increased gains in total employment — paired with boosts in consumer confidence, airport traffic and electricity sales — carried positive numbers in the summer, however, seasonally and inflation-adjusted port activity declined. Economic growth is expected to weaken through the second half of 2016 and in early 2017.

"If we look at the gains achieved in the first half of the year, we can, by comparison, expect growth to slow in the coming months," said Michael Toma, Fuller E. Callaway professor of economics and the director of Armstrong’s Center for Regional Analysis. "The effects of Hurricane Matthew will further test the resiliency of the economy during the fourth quarter."

In the housing market, building permit issuance for single-family homes fell sharply by 10 percent from the first quarter, marking a significant drop from the year prior. The seasonally adjusted number of new residential homes permitted for construction was 439, compared to 487 in the first quarter.

The average valuation of building permits for single-family homes remained exceptionally strong, holding at about $250,000 for the second consecutive quarter. This is well over 20 percent higher than valuation data going back a few years, but is likely to decline in upcoming quarters.

Additional highlights from the latest Economic Monitor include:

• The forecasting Coastal Empire leading economic index gained ground, increasing 1.4 percent, from 153.3 in the previous quarter to 155.5, but there is some weakness below the top line number, particularly in the labor market and in the residential housing market. Consumer expectations in the south Atlantic states declined modestly during the second quarter.

• Data suggests increases in total regional employment and airport traffic, blended with a rebound in consumer confidence, gave the index the bump it needed to offset flat hotel and retail sales, as well as weaker port activity.

• Figures for manufacturing employment show 18,100 workers, but this will likely be revised after an impending Georgia Department of Labor annual data benchmarking process. The number is expected to drop by as many as 1,000 jobs due to reporting delays and data collection procedural issues.

• In the labor market, seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) jumped 6.7 percent to 812 per month from 762 claims. The number of UI claims is 10 percent higher than levels during the same time last year. The regional unemployment rate bumped up to 5.2 percent (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter, but dropped to 4.8 percent for the second quarter.

The Coastal Empire Economic Monitor presents quarterly economic trends and short-term economic forecasts for Savannah’s Metropolitan Statistical Area, which is north of Liberty County, but effects the whole area. The quarterly report measures the heartbeat of the local economy, based on the analysis of economic data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the City of Savannah, Georgia Power and the three counties in the MSA—Chatham, Bryan and Effingham.

The report presents a short-term forecast of the region’s economic activity in the next six to nine months and is available for free by email. To subscribe, email CRA@armstrong.edu.

Armstrong’s Center for Regional Analysis, housed in the university’s economics department, meets the applied research needs of Savannah’s business and community organizations.

Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest.

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GPA grows trade, market share
Intermodal volume up 20 percent
port photo
Rubber tired gantry cranes handle cargo at the Chatham Intermodal Container Transfer Facility at the Port of Savannah. The Georgia Ports Authority's Mason Mega Rail project will double rail lift capacity to 1 million containers per year by 2020 - photo by Provided
Staff Report
Updated: Apr 17, 2018, 1:07 PM
Published: Apr 17, 2018, 1:08 PM

The Georgia Ports Authority achieved 14 percent growth in March container volumes, moving 355,208 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) containers.

From July 2017 to March, TEU container trade grew by 9 percent, or 255,786 additional units for a total of 3.08 million, a new record for Savannah.

"Savannah's continued strength is a reflection of our customers' commitment, Georgia's leadership, and the many dedicated service providers, GPA employees and ILA members who come together every day to achieve great things," said GPA Executive Director Griff Lynch. "March marked our 17th consecutive month of business expansion thanks, in part, to a strong economy and growing market share."

Intermodal rail volumes jumped by 20 percent in March and 15.4 percent for the fiscal year to date, for a total of 318,454 containers handled over nine months – another record for the GPA.

"As the numbers show, our rail cargo is growing at a faster pace than our overall trade," GPA Chairman Jimmy Allgood said. "This is important because rail is playing a key role in our responsible growth strategy. We anticipate our rail infrastructure investments to take 250,000 trucks off the road each year by 2020."

The GPA recently broke ground on its Mason Mega Rail Terminal, on which the Port of Savannah will build 10,000-foot unit trains within its own footprint. From the expanded rail infrastructure at Garden City Terminal, Class I rail providers CSX and Norfolk Southern will provide direct rail service to major Southeast and Midwestern markets from Memphis to St. Louis, Chicago to Cincinnati.

An added benefit is that the Mason Mega Rail project will move all rail switching on terminal – improving vehicle traffic flow around the port.

In August, the GPA will open its Appalachian Regional Port in Murray County. Located in an industrial belt, including the production and export of carpet and flooring, automobiles and tires, the ARP will provide an alternative to all-truck transit to Northwest Georgia.

Each round-trip container moved via the Appalachian Regional Port will offset 710 truck miles on Georgia highways.

March was also a strong month for roll-on/roll-off auto and machinery units at the Port of Brunswick and Ocean Terminal in Savannah. Colonel's Island Terminal in Brunswick handled 66,144 cars, trucks and tractors, while Ocean Terminal added 4,050, for a total 70,194, a 17.2 percent increase.

"The global economy is thriving and our volumes are following suit," Lynch said. "As existing accounts grow their footprint in the expanding auto facility in Brunswick, Georgia's competitive logistical advantages are drawing additional business across all of our docks."

Lynch noted that for the fiscal year to date, Mayor's Point breakbulk terminal in Brunswick grew by 44 percent (34,515 tons) to reach 112,728 tons of forest products. At East River Terminal, bulk cargo expanded by 34 percent July-March (189,918 tons) for a total of 750,384 tons.

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