Oscar night is always a special night for movie lovers as Hollywoods elite come out in full glitz and glamor and the word snubbed suddenly becomes one of the most utilized verbs in the English language.
Of course, at roughly 17 hours long OK, slight exaggeration its not much fun to watch for those of us without a horse in the race.
So, whether its to impress family and friends with your spot-on predictions or to be able to register the appropriate amount of surprise when a movie youve never heard of wins in an upset, heres a preview of what this years Academy Awards show is probably going to look like across the major categories.
Best picture nominees:
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Whats favored to win?
According to most Oscar pundits, this category is a two-way race between Guillermo del Toros dark fantasy romance The Shape of Water and Martin McDonaghs revenge drama Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The former, involving the relationship between an aquatic creature and a mute janitor, scored 13 nominations in total the most of any film this year and stands a chance of becoming a Lord of the Rings-style juggernaut come Oscar night. However, the academy has a long history of failing to recognize genre films. Just looking back a few years, Avatar and Gravity each showed up with similar prospects and in both cases, they were skipped over for best picture. In other words, the same elements that make The Shape of Water so strikingly original could also be what cost it the big award.
Three Billboards, on the other hand, is exactly the kind of movie for which the academy tends to vote. On top of that, it has tons of momentum leading up to this Sundays show, having picked up virtually every major award there is. But its also generated some vociferous backlash partially for its controversial portrayal of African-American characters, and partially for just how unpleasant a lot of it is. (One article in The New York Times described it as a cupcake rolled in broken glass.) Whether or not that backlash affects its chances and trickles down to the other categories where its nominated is one of the big questions of the night.
Or else:
Unlike the other categories at the Academy Awards, best picture is determined by a system called preferential voting meaning that it isnt a simple majority that determines the winner; instead, voters rank the nominees. Because of that, best picture has often proven harder to predict than the other categories, and this year is no exception.
There are a number of scenarios in which neither Water nor Three Billboards wins, in which case the likeliest pick would be either Jordan Peeles racially charged horror-comedy Get Out or Greta Gerwigs coming-of-age dramedy Lady Bird. Both were huge critical darlings, each scoring 99 percent fresh ratings on Rotten Tomatoes, and have passionate fans among the academy as well.
But theres also an argument to be made for Christopher Nolans Dunkirk, a World War II epic from a modern auteur who has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to toe the line between artistry and commercial sensibility. Nolans past films have failed to generate serious Oscar heat for reasons that continue to mystify his fans. Dunkirk isnt the most likely contender, but it is the closest Nolan has come to Oscar gold so far.
Best actor nominees:
Timothe Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Whos favored to win?
In a year full of incredible performances by actors in leading roles, this award is all but guaranteed to go to Oldman for his transformation as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Oldman, one of the most consistently interesting and daring actors in Hollywood, has been snubbed time and again in the past. This is his year. If he doesnt win, it will be a major upset.
Or else:
Day-Lewis is never not a contender. Hes already won three acting Oscars (and been nominated for three more), and with Phantom Thread, the British thespian turned in what is being hailed as another masterful performance, playing a dressmaker in 1950s London. Additionally, Day-Lewis has stated that Phantom Thread will be his final role, which could very well give him a bit of a boost from his peers. If he did win, he would be the first male actor in history to have won four acting Oscars, tying the only actress ever to do so, Katharine Hepburn. Not a bad note on which to end a career.
Best actress nominees:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Whos favored to win?
You know its a stacked year when the only actress who doesnt seem to stand much of a chance of winning is Streep.
Out of the deep talent represented in this years best actress category, McDormand has emerged as the frontrunner for her role as the mother of a murdered teen in Three Billboards. In the months leading up to the awards night, shes taken home trophy after trophy after trophy, including the Screen Actors Guild Award, which is frequently seen as one of the most reliable predictors of Oscar gold. (The Screen Actors Guild is one of the groups that makes up the voting body of the academy.) And even Three Billboards"' detractors mostly seem to agree that her performance is a standout in an otherwise problematic film.
Or else:
If McDormand doesnt win, its anyones guess. Ronan picked up a Golden Globe for Lady Bird, making her a strong contender. But if that does give her an edge, its not much of one. Hawkins and Robbie are right behind her, and either one could wind up taking home the statuette, as well.
Supporting actor nominees:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Whos favored to win?
Like his Three Billboards co-star, Rockwell has likewise had a string of wins this awards season that positions him as a likely favorite. Unlike McDormand, though, his character a bigoted police officer with a rather indelicate touch is at the heart of the controversy thats developed around the film as a whole, and that could negatively impact his chances.
Or else:
Dafoe was considered a shoe-in for the award when The Florida Project first started playing the festival circuit. If Rockwell falters, Dafoe looks like first runner-up.
Supporting actress nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Whos favored to win:
With I, Tonya, Janney delivered the type of scene-stealing supporting performance the academy loves to love as Tonya Hardings profanity-spewing mother. This is after a series of memorable supporting performances in other Oscar darlings such as The Help, The Hours and American Beauty, and an even longer list of great TV credits. Add to that a SAG win (among a slew of other awards), and she is the clear favorite.
Or else:
Like Dafoe in the best supporting actor category, Metcalf looked poised to take this home for her role in Lady Bird that is, until Janney started winning pretty much everything else leading up to the Oscars. At least according to awards prediction site Gold Derby, however, this race could be the tightest of the evening, as two of Gold Derby's 13 participating experts have pegged Metcalf to win.
Best director nominees:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water"
Whos favored to win?
In what was possibly a sign of the backlash building against Three Billboards, McDonagh wasnt even nominated in the best director category. That leaves The Shape of Water's del Toro as the easy pick. Even going neck and neck with McDonagh, del Toro was given the top honor last month by the Directors Guild of America, which, like the SAG awards, is usually one of the most accurate predictions of what will happen at the Oscars. (In the last 69 years, 61 of the DGA winners have also won best director at the Academy Awards.)
Or else:
Nolan fans everywhere are holding out hope that this could still be his year, but the best director race has two other names that are more likely picks in the (unlikely) event that del Toro doesnt win: Gerwig and Peele. A win from either filmmaker would be historic, as both represent minorities that have been woefully absent from the Oscars. Gerwig is only the fifth woman ever nominated for directing in the academys 90-year history, and only one of those Kathryn Bigelow won. Likewise, Peele is only the fifth black director ever nominated (four out of the five have been since 2009), and if he won, he would be the first black director to win.
Best animated feature nominees:
The Boss Baby"
The Breadwinner"
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent"
Whats favored to win?
While the best animated feature category has become much more competitive in recent years, Disney Animation and Pixar still dominate. This year, the big shock was seeing Boss Baby edge out Pixars other 2017 release, Cars 3 (among other, arguably even more deserving animated films) for a nomination. That leaves Coco pretty much a lock to win or, as Gold Derby puts it, practically unbeatable. Coco would be the ninth Pixar Oscar in this category (which has only existed for 17 years).
Or else:
It would take a minor miracle, but Coco's" biggest competition of the night is turning out to be The Breadwinner, a 2D animated film set in Afghanistan that doesnt shy away from real-world political issues. Animation has long struggled to buck its kiddy associations and unlikely though it is, honoring this film would certainly be a nice sign of the progress animation has made as a medium for storytelling, regardless of age level.
Best adapted screenplay nominees:
Call Me By Your Name," James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan," Michael Green, James Mangold and Scott Frank
Mollys Game," Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound," Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
Whats favored to win?
Any film buff worth their salt knows the name James Ivory (of Merchant Ivory fame). Despite having scored three previous nominations over his long career, the acclaimed director has never won an Oscar. At 89 years old, he now stands his best chance yet for his adaptation of Call Me By Your Name.
Or else:
In one of the big surprises of this years awards season, James Francos The Disaster Artist was almost entirely shut out of the Oscar race the one exception being this category, which could turn into a bit of a consolation prize for a movie that seemed to have Oscar potential written all over it.
Original Screenplay:
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh
Whats favored to win?
Three Billboards will more than likely continue its Oscar night sweep here, but if it doesnt, this is one category where The Shape of Water is not its closest competition.
Or else:
Peeles Get Out will probably have to settle for nominations in most of the categories. But best original screenplay could very easily end up his, as most critics would agree that the genius of the movie lies in its writing, which deftly mashes together searing racial commentary with legitimate scares and yet still manages to be laugh-out-loud funny. Not an easy balancing act, by any means.
Of course, at roughly 17 hours long OK, slight exaggeration its not much fun to watch for those of us without a horse in the race.
So, whether its to impress family and friends with your spot-on predictions or to be able to register the appropriate amount of surprise when a movie youve never heard of wins in an upset, heres a preview of what this years Academy Awards show is probably going to look like across the major categories.
Best picture nominees:
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Whats favored to win?
According to most Oscar pundits, this category is a two-way race between Guillermo del Toros dark fantasy romance The Shape of Water and Martin McDonaghs revenge drama Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The former, involving the relationship between an aquatic creature and a mute janitor, scored 13 nominations in total the most of any film this year and stands a chance of becoming a Lord of the Rings-style juggernaut come Oscar night. However, the academy has a long history of failing to recognize genre films. Just looking back a few years, Avatar and Gravity each showed up with similar prospects and in both cases, they were skipped over for best picture. In other words, the same elements that make The Shape of Water so strikingly original could also be what cost it the big award.
Three Billboards, on the other hand, is exactly the kind of movie for which the academy tends to vote. On top of that, it has tons of momentum leading up to this Sundays show, having picked up virtually every major award there is. But its also generated some vociferous backlash partially for its controversial portrayal of African-American characters, and partially for just how unpleasant a lot of it is. (One article in The New York Times described it as a cupcake rolled in broken glass.) Whether or not that backlash affects its chances and trickles down to the other categories where its nominated is one of the big questions of the night.
Or else:
Unlike the other categories at the Academy Awards, best picture is determined by a system called preferential voting meaning that it isnt a simple majority that determines the winner; instead, voters rank the nominees. Because of that, best picture has often proven harder to predict than the other categories, and this year is no exception.
There are a number of scenarios in which neither Water nor Three Billboards wins, in which case the likeliest pick would be either Jordan Peeles racially charged horror-comedy Get Out or Greta Gerwigs coming-of-age dramedy Lady Bird. Both were huge critical darlings, each scoring 99 percent fresh ratings on Rotten Tomatoes, and have passionate fans among the academy as well.
But theres also an argument to be made for Christopher Nolans Dunkirk, a World War II epic from a modern auteur who has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to toe the line between artistry and commercial sensibility. Nolans past films have failed to generate serious Oscar heat for reasons that continue to mystify his fans. Dunkirk isnt the most likely contender, but it is the closest Nolan has come to Oscar gold so far.
Best actor nominees:
Timothe Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Whos favored to win?
In a year full of incredible performances by actors in leading roles, this award is all but guaranteed to go to Oldman for his transformation as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Oldman, one of the most consistently interesting and daring actors in Hollywood, has been snubbed time and again in the past. This is his year. If he doesnt win, it will be a major upset.
Or else:
Day-Lewis is never not a contender. Hes already won three acting Oscars (and been nominated for three more), and with Phantom Thread, the British thespian turned in what is being hailed as another masterful performance, playing a dressmaker in 1950s London. Additionally, Day-Lewis has stated that Phantom Thread will be his final role, which could very well give him a bit of a boost from his peers. If he did win, he would be the first male actor in history to have won four acting Oscars, tying the only actress ever to do so, Katharine Hepburn. Not a bad note on which to end a career.
Best actress nominees:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Whos favored to win?
You know its a stacked year when the only actress who doesnt seem to stand much of a chance of winning is Streep.
Out of the deep talent represented in this years best actress category, McDormand has emerged as the frontrunner for her role as the mother of a murdered teen in Three Billboards. In the months leading up to the awards night, shes taken home trophy after trophy after trophy, including the Screen Actors Guild Award, which is frequently seen as one of the most reliable predictors of Oscar gold. (The Screen Actors Guild is one of the groups that makes up the voting body of the academy.) And even Three Billboards"' detractors mostly seem to agree that her performance is a standout in an otherwise problematic film.
Or else:
If McDormand doesnt win, its anyones guess. Ronan picked up a Golden Globe for Lady Bird, making her a strong contender. But if that does give her an edge, its not much of one. Hawkins and Robbie are right behind her, and either one could wind up taking home the statuette, as well.
Supporting actor nominees:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Whos favored to win?
Like his Three Billboards co-star, Rockwell has likewise had a string of wins this awards season that positions him as a likely favorite. Unlike McDormand, though, his character a bigoted police officer with a rather indelicate touch is at the heart of the controversy thats developed around the film as a whole, and that could negatively impact his chances.
Or else:
Dafoe was considered a shoe-in for the award when The Florida Project first started playing the festival circuit. If Rockwell falters, Dafoe looks like first runner-up.
Supporting actress nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Whos favored to win:
With I, Tonya, Janney delivered the type of scene-stealing supporting performance the academy loves to love as Tonya Hardings profanity-spewing mother. This is after a series of memorable supporting performances in other Oscar darlings such as The Help, The Hours and American Beauty, and an even longer list of great TV credits. Add to that a SAG win (among a slew of other awards), and she is the clear favorite.
Or else:
Like Dafoe in the best supporting actor category, Metcalf looked poised to take this home for her role in Lady Bird that is, until Janney started winning pretty much everything else leading up to the Oscars. At least according to awards prediction site Gold Derby, however, this race could be the tightest of the evening, as two of Gold Derby's 13 participating experts have pegged Metcalf to win.
Best director nominees:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water"
Whos favored to win?
In what was possibly a sign of the backlash building against Three Billboards, McDonagh wasnt even nominated in the best director category. That leaves The Shape of Water's del Toro as the easy pick. Even going neck and neck with McDonagh, del Toro was given the top honor last month by the Directors Guild of America, which, like the SAG awards, is usually one of the most accurate predictions of what will happen at the Oscars. (In the last 69 years, 61 of the DGA winners have also won best director at the Academy Awards.)
Or else:
Nolan fans everywhere are holding out hope that this could still be his year, but the best director race has two other names that are more likely picks in the (unlikely) event that del Toro doesnt win: Gerwig and Peele. A win from either filmmaker would be historic, as both represent minorities that have been woefully absent from the Oscars. Gerwig is only the fifth woman ever nominated for directing in the academys 90-year history, and only one of those Kathryn Bigelow won. Likewise, Peele is only the fifth black director ever nominated (four out of the five have been since 2009), and if he won, he would be the first black director to win.
Best animated feature nominees:
The Boss Baby"
The Breadwinner"
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent"
Whats favored to win?
While the best animated feature category has become much more competitive in recent years, Disney Animation and Pixar still dominate. This year, the big shock was seeing Boss Baby edge out Pixars other 2017 release, Cars 3 (among other, arguably even more deserving animated films) for a nomination. That leaves Coco pretty much a lock to win or, as Gold Derby puts it, practically unbeatable. Coco would be the ninth Pixar Oscar in this category (which has only existed for 17 years).
Or else:
It would take a minor miracle, but Coco's" biggest competition of the night is turning out to be The Breadwinner, a 2D animated film set in Afghanistan that doesnt shy away from real-world political issues. Animation has long struggled to buck its kiddy associations and unlikely though it is, honoring this film would certainly be a nice sign of the progress animation has made as a medium for storytelling, regardless of age level.
Best adapted screenplay nominees:
Call Me By Your Name," James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan," Michael Green, James Mangold and Scott Frank
Mollys Game," Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound," Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
Whats favored to win?
Any film buff worth their salt knows the name James Ivory (of Merchant Ivory fame). Despite having scored three previous nominations over his long career, the acclaimed director has never won an Oscar. At 89 years old, he now stands his best chance yet for his adaptation of Call Me By Your Name.
Or else:
In one of the big surprises of this years awards season, James Francos The Disaster Artist was almost entirely shut out of the Oscar race the one exception being this category, which could turn into a bit of a consolation prize for a movie that seemed to have Oscar potential written all over it.
Original Screenplay:
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh
Whats favored to win?
Three Billboards will more than likely continue its Oscar night sweep here, but if it doesnt, this is one category where The Shape of Water is not its closest competition.
Or else:
Peeles Get Out will probably have to settle for nominations in most of the categories. But best original screenplay could very easily end up his, as most critics would agree that the genius of the movie lies in its writing, which deftly mashes together searing racial commentary with legitimate scares and yet still manages to be laugh-out-loud funny. Not an easy balancing act, by any means.